Technologies to Watch in Higher Education: 8 Years’ of Predictions

The New Media Consortium and Educause recently published their annual Horizon Report, which "describes six areas of emerging technology that will have significant impact in higher education within three adoption horizons over the next one to five years" (Johnson, Levine, Smith & Stone, 2010).

In response, I compiled the lists of technologies to watch from the eight Horizon reports that have been published to date:

Year	Time to Adoption: 1 Year or Less	Time to Adoption: 2 to 3 Years	Time to Adoption: 4 to 5 Years
2004	Learning objects Scalable vector graphics (SVG)	Rapid prototyping Multimodal interfaces	Context-aware computing Knowledge webs
2005	Extended Learning Ubiquitous wireless	Intelligent searching Educational gaming	Social Networks & Knowledge Webs Context-Aware Computing/Augmented Reality
2006	Social computing Personal broadcasting	The phones in their pockets Educational gaming	Social networks and knowledge webs Context-aware computing/augmented reality
2007	User-created content Social networking	Mobile phones Virtual worlds	The new scholarship and emerging forms of publication Massively multiplayer educational gaming
2008	Grassroots video Collaboration web	Mobile broadband Data mashups	Collective intelligence Social operating systems
2009	Mobiles Cloud computing	Geo-everything (geo-tagging of data) Personal web	Semantic-aware objects Smart objects
2010	Mobile computing Open content	Electronic books Simple augmented reality	Gesture-based computing Visual data analysis
2011	Electronic books Mobiles (mobile devices)	Augmented reality Game-based learning	Gesture-based computing Learning analytics

Food for thought: Which technologies did they call correctly? Which ones not?

References
Johnson, L., Smith, R., Willis, H., Levine, A., and Haywood, K.,  (2011). The 2011 Horizon Report. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium.

Johnson, L., Levine, A., Smith, R., & Stone, S. (2010). The 2010 Horizon Report.

Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium.